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Big 4 becomes Big 3 for Australian Open

As we enter the first slam of 2013, let's have a look at a very exciting year ahead for the Big Four...or will it be the Big Three?

Novak Djokovic

Novak enters the 2013 Australian Open as World Number 1 and favourite to retain his title. He is going for his 4th win in Melbourne and his 6th Slam in total (same number of slam wins as Becker and Edberg). Having attended Novak's last big final at the ATP World Tour finals in London, he finished the 2012 season in style. His biggest strength now is belief and confidence to turn situations in his favour.
Against Federer and Murray in that tournament Novak showed great guile, both in terms of play and psychology to get the edge in these victories. For that reason I see Novak dominating 2013, potentially getting the 'Grand Slam'.
Australian Open Predictions
1st Round v. Paul-Henri Mathieu:  
Head to Head: First meeting  
Prediction: This will be a straight sets victory for Novak.
The last time Novak lost a first round match at the slams was at the 2006 Australian Open to American Paul Goldstein.
How far will he go in Melbourne? Winner by defeating Murray in Final

Roger Federer

Roger enters the 2013 season with the same questions that were asked at the beginning of 2012: Can he win Slams? Is this his last year on the  tour? Well last year the answers to these questions were Yes and No respectively. Having already referred to that final in London, Roger showed he is definitely still one of  the best. His issue against Djokovic seems to be that psychological aspect of the game, he fears Novak. This year I don't see Roger winning any slams, but I don't think it will be his last year on the tour either. 
Australian Open Predictions
1st Round v. Benoit Paire.
Head to Head: 1-0 to Roger, that victory coming at Basel 2012 (6-2, 6-2)
Prediction: This will be a straight sets victory for Roger. 
The last time Roger lost a first round match at the slams was at the 2003 French Open to Peruvian Luis Horna.
How far will he go in Melbourne? Semi-Final defeat at the hands of Murray

  

Andy Murray

Andy is in a great position as he enters the first slam of 2013 as the winner of the last slam of 2012. Last season showed Andy coming of age by winning at the Olympics and the US Open. Reaching the Wimbledon final seemed to be the catalyst to push him over the line and claim his maiden slam. Andy's biggest challenge in Australia is clearly Novak Djokovic, and likely for the rest of the year and career. I think Wimbledon will be the big one for Andy in 2013 and he proved last year he can win on grass. It will be a fascinating season with some great battles on the horizon. Andy can potentially win the Australian, Wimbledon and even the US Open, and by the same token may win none. 
Australian Open Predictions
1st Round v. Robin Haase 
Head to Head: 1-1. Having attended their last meeting at the 2011 US Open, Haase had Andy in all sorts of trouble taking a 2 sets to 0 lead. Andy won out in 5 in the end.
Prediction: Andy in 4 sets. 
The last time Andy lost a first round match at the slams was at the 2008 Australian Open to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. With the benefit of hindsight that was a tough first round by any standard.
How far will he go in Melbourne? Runner-Up to Djokovic

Rafa Nadal

No question about it, tennis is not the same without Rafa making up the 'Big Four' at the slam events. He hasn't played competitively since June when he lost in a shock defeat to Rosol at Wimbledon. Following Rafa's progress through rehabilitation on Facebook suggested he would back in action at Melbourne until another late withdrawal. Tennis needs Rafa back. What does 2013 hold for Rafa? At this point, no one could be sure what the season holds for him. It is hard to see him winning any of the slams other than Roland Garros if he can get fit and soon. He bounced back in 2010 after a tough season in 2009 with knee problems, which stopped him defending his Wimbledon title that year. It would seem that this time round those injuires are worse and he is 3 years older now. Would be great to Rafa back competing, even if not competing for titles.


Pretenders for Big Four: 

With Rafa's absence, could someone else move into the top 4 in 2013?

  • Del Potro - only person other than the Big Four to win a slam since 2005.
  • Tsonga - been knocking on the door but lacks the relentless consistency the elite display
  • Ferrer - unlike Tsonga is super consistent but seems to lack that 'A game' to win slams 
  • Berdych - like Tsonga and Ferrer been consistently in that next group of players, seems to lack some craftiness in those big matches

 

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