2019 Wimbledon Final: What does Federer need to do to stop Djokovic eating grass?

Today's Wimbledon Final between two of the greatest ever is almost sure to be a classic. This rivalry rarely throws up a match that isn't a classic. 

Djokovic is Number 1 for a Reason

Djokovic is deservedly seeded 1 and favourite to regain his title. His record this year has been been to win 90% of his matches, with only 1 Grand Slam loss in 2019 and that has been his only loss since Roland Garros in 2018.

Federer's record for 2019 and Career win-loss are also very impressive numbers. 
With 2 losses in Slams so far, to Nadal at Roland Garros at the Semi-Final stage and the shock loss to Tsitsipas in Australia.

Head to Head 

Djokovic has a slight advantage their Head to Head. Federer's last win against Djokovic was at the 2015 ATP Finals in London. They have just played on 3 occasions since with Djokovic taking all 3 matches. Just one of those was in the Slams at the 2016 Australian. They had 2 meetings in 2018 and the last of those was a very tight 3 setter with Djokovic winning 7-6, 5-7, 7-6. 

Head to Head at Wimbledon 

These two have met just 3 times in their long careers and Djokovic leads that Head to Head 2-1. 

2012 Wimbledon Semi-Final - Federer equals the record

Federer was the 3rd seed and progressed to his 24th Grand Slam final with a 6-3 3-6 6-4 6-3 win over tournament favourite Djokovic. It took Federer only two hours and 19 minutes to end the Serb's reign. He went to defeat Andy Murray in the Final to equal William Renshaw and Pete Sampras's record of seven Wimbledon crowns.

Whilst the stats don't tell the full story, they do give an indication of how both performed on  the day. The most obvious stats are in the Winners and Unforced errors comparison,  this tells the story that Federer was really on form that day. Djokovic also played quite a few points at the net which was as a result of the very aggressive style Federer deployed on the day. The 1st serve % is probably more important now for Federer. Seven years on, Federer will be wanting more easy points and shorter reallies so will be hoping for that number to be closer to the goal line of better than 70%. 

2014 Wimbledon Final - Turning point in their rivalry

This was the first of two amazing finals and this one in particular ranks as one of the greatest men's finals of all time. It was their 35th competitive meeting and a big turning point in the rivalry as Djokovic took the lead 18-17 in their career Head to Head battle, he has been in the lead ever since. 

The Serb, 27, came through 6-7 (7-9) 6-4 7-6 (7-4) 5-7 6-4 to win his second Wimbledon and seventh Grand Slam title. After letting a championship point slip in the fourth set, he won Wimbledon's first five-set final since 2009. Djokovic had lost his previous three major finals.

The stats in the one are very impressive from players and paint a picture of the classic that it was. Federer served amazingly well hitting 29 Aces and a 1st serve % of 69 (he would love to hit those numbers today). The Winners v Unforced Errors numbers illustrate how high the level was in match, really impressive numbers from both players. 

This match could've went either way on the day, Djokovic had the slight edge mentally to take that 5th set. Statistically, it also shows he had Federer under more trouble on serve with 15 break points despite how well Federer served. 

2015 Wimbledon Final - Djokovic in the zone

Going into the 2015 Wimbledon Final, Djokovic was in imperious form. However, he did have to pull himself back from 2 sets down against Kevin Anderson in the 4th round. He would win this title and the next 3 slams after that to create the 'Nole Slam', holding all 4 Grand Slams at once (non-calendar year).

This match statistically shows a similar trend to their previous Wimbledon meetings. Federer didn't get as many Aces as he did the year before but did a better job at winning points on his second serve. Djokovic was just more consistent and had that mental strength on key points which helped him overcome an excellent Federer display. 16 Unforced errors in a game of this magnitude is a very impressive number. 

2019 Wimbledon Final - Federer's 9th or Djokovic's 5th

As tennis fans we have been so lucky to have these greats playing against each other, in what seemingly are rivalries that will never end. They will come to an end one day and so we should savour every one as if it's the last (you may have heard that before). 

Federer

Pros

Federer is playing as good as ever on grass and has us asking the question 'is he immortal?'. His Semi-Final win over Nadal was very impressive and he really looked to be in control despite a hiccup in the second set when things went a little awry. 

His serving was great, he was aggressive on the return and the stats back it up. At 68% on first serves and winning 62% on his second serve meant Nadal really struggled to break, especially when it mattered. 51 Winners and 27 Unforced errors to Nadal's 32 and 25 respectively helps sum up the contest. 

To beat Djokovic he needs to maintain those service levels he showed against Nadal in sets 1, 3 and 4 and would like to avoid the dip in set 2 which saw him lose to a 6-1 scoreline. Djokovic in the 2015 Final had a delta of 30 points in his favour when you subtract the unforced errors from the winners. If Federer can hit this sort of number, he will be in a very strong position to prevail. 

Cons

A big factor and forgetting the stats for a moment is that Djokovic has won his past four matches against Federer and eight of the past 10. Some of these victories seem to come to down sheer belief on the really big points. Djokovic will feel confident he can continue his dominance over Federer in recent years. 

Djokovic is most likely the best returner in the history of the game. This puts Federer under huge pressure when serving as he knows anything less than perfect it is coming back at him. The stats show once Federer and Djokovic begin to rally, it is Djokovic that comes out on top more often. 

Djokovic

Pros

Djokovic is defending champion, has been dominating Federer over the past 5-6 years in the Head to Head and looks to be close to his best. As alluded to, being the best returner in the game he will be relentless on Federer's serve to get those decisive breaks that can take him to glory. Djokovic has been aggressive on returns throughout the tournament, racking up 71 break points and converting on 34 (48%). He leads the tournament in return games won (34 of 89, 38%). The 32-year-old has been efficient in conserving energy, spending 12 hours and 54 minutes on court to reach the semi-finals. 

His serve is also on point this tournament and he has held serve in 86 of 92 service games (93%), saving 15 of 24 break points. The World No.1 has only been broken twice in his past four matches.

Cons

He hasn't really been tested to date and Federer has that battle with Nadal which means he has acclimatised to the levels we only see when these big three meet. He also seems more human than when he was at his peak (2015/16 Nole Slam). In his Semi-Final against Bautista Agut he hit 42 Winners to 29 Unforced errors and by his standards that is a lot of unforced errors. Even in his dominant win over Goffin in the quarters he hit 24 Winners to 17 Unforced errors. Long story short, he doesn't his as many winner v unforced as he did in his prime. Against the immortal Federer this could be exploited and see him lose his crown. 

Prediction - Federer in 4 Sets

The stats still point the finger at a Djokovic victory. But we know stats, whilst being a very good indicator, don't always predict the obvious outcome. 

If Federer can get his service stats up to and beyond their level in the 2014 Final, he will be in a very good position to cause an upset. He is hitting his backhand harder and flatter than ever before and can keep rallies to a minimum by hitting big winners. This will frustrate Djokovic who will be battling the 14,979 Wimbledon capacity crowd (minus his team plus a few others) and feed Federer's focus to get to 9 Wimbledon crowns and an unprecedented 21 Grand Slams - solidifying his status at the G.O.A.T.