There is no question that the Big Four of tennis is no longer. Whilst Federer and Nadal are still active and producing high level tennis, they don't have that edge anymore to win slams (hope they prove me wrong).
The 'Big Two' has definitely been the case for the 2016 season as Murray and Djokovic have played each other in two finals at Australia and RG with Murray having made all 3 to date.
Including the US Open Final of 2011, when Djokovic lost to Nadal, either Djokovic or Murray have been in 21 of the 24 finals since then. They have met in 7 of those finals and Djokovic leads the H2H 5-2. It feels like Murray's current form will see him take his fourth career Grand Slam in New York and I see Djokovic making the final, this will take the series to 5-3. The Lendl factor has by no coincidence changed Murray's fortune in their second stint together, he is such a calming influence on Murray and enables Murray to play his best tennis. In hindsight looking at the final at RG, the absence of Lendl now looks very obvious. Murray played amazing tennis in the first set, but as Djokovic got momentum with a very partisan crowd, Murray got very frustrated and lost his way mentally. Lendl in his corner would've have been a stabilising force which may have seen Murray take the title.. who knows?
When it comes to Murray and Djokovic YTD the stats don't really tell the full story. They don't tell us that Djokovic has struggled since Wimbledon with a mixture of physical and mental issues. To be honest Djokovic was looking so imperious in the first part of the year it was a relief for us mere mortals to see him struggle a bit. He was machine like in his execution of matches with a belief that I don't think I have seen before (perhaps Federer in his prime). That belief has taken a wobble lately, which will give Murray hope that he can bag his fourth slam.
On the stats below which are stats from all matches YTD, they paint a picture that shows us why Djokovic currently has the No. 1 ranking. This is highlighted most obviously by the Win % of 94.1 against Murray's 87.7. Their slam records have been so good this year that the difference isn't negligible. The only blip coming at Wimbledon when Querrey shocked everyone by putting the Serb out in 4 sets. A stat from that match which highlights the dip in form was that Djokovic won only 65% of points on his 1st serve, compared to his average of 73%. I don't want to take away from Querrey as he played some great tennis, but Djokovic wasn't at his best. In general when you look at the stats in that match, in almost every area Djokovic was well below par.
The stats always make interesting reading when comparing two players. I think if both players are in form and are playing their best tennis, you would expect Djokovic to win the majority of matches. However, when we look at the 2016 stats, there is very little to separate the two overall.
I think based on how both players are playing in the US Open so far, as stated before it looks likely Murray will make his fourth Grand Slam final of the year which would be an amazing feat. The great Federer achieved this in 2006, 2007 and 2009 and Djokovic managed to do so in 2015. Djokovic had made 6 finals in a row at RG this year and has been in 17 of the last 24.
I predict Murray to win the US Open. However, I am still unsure about what impact Djokovic will make in the tournament but it would be extremely foolish to rule him out. Interestingly if Djokovic gets as far as a final and gets through this rocky patch he's experiencing I wouldn't doubt the man taking Murray in the final.
It bodes well for a very exciting US Open but also looks like the Big Two have the momentum which will see further domination in 2017.
In terms of players that can upset the status quo, I would look at:
The 'Big Two' has definitely been the case for the 2016 season as Murray and Djokovic have played each other in two finals at Australia and RG with Murray having made all 3 to date.
Including the US Open Final of 2011, when Djokovic lost to Nadal, either Djokovic or Murray have been in 21 of the 24 finals since then. They have met in 7 of those finals and Djokovic leads the H2H 5-2. It feels like Murray's current form will see him take his fourth career Grand Slam in New York and I see Djokovic making the final, this will take the series to 5-3. The Lendl factor has by no coincidence changed Murray's fortune in their second stint together, he is such a calming influence on Murray and enables Murray to play his best tennis. In hindsight looking at the final at RG, the absence of Lendl now looks very obvious. Murray played amazing tennis in the first set, but as Djokovic got momentum with a very partisan crowd, Murray got very frustrated and lost his way mentally. Lendl in his corner would've have been a stabilising force which may have seen Murray take the title.. who knows?
 |
| Grand Slam Finals since 2010 |
On the stats below which are stats from all matches YTD, they paint a picture that shows us why Djokovic currently has the No. 1 ranking. This is highlighted most obviously by the Win % of 94.1 against Murray's 87.7. Their slam records have been so good this year that the difference isn't negligible. The only blip coming at Wimbledon when Querrey shocked everyone by putting the Serb out in 4 sets. A stat from that match which highlights the dip in form was that Djokovic won only 65% of points on his 1st serve, compared to his average of 73%. I don't want to take away from Querrey as he played some great tennis, but Djokovic wasn't at his best. In general when you look at the stats in that match, in almost every area Djokovic was well below par.
 |
| Djokovic v Murray 2016 YTD (2nd SEP) |
I think based on how both players are playing in the US Open so far, as stated before it looks likely Murray will make his fourth Grand Slam final of the year which would be an amazing feat. The great Federer achieved this in 2006, 2007 and 2009 and Djokovic managed to do so in 2015. Djokovic had made 6 finals in a row at RG this year and has been in 17 of the last 24.
I predict Murray to win the US Open. However, I am still unsure about what impact Djokovic will make in the tournament but it would be extremely foolish to rule him out. Interestingly if Djokovic gets as far as a final and gets through this rocky patch he's experiencing I wouldn't doubt the man taking Murray in the final.
It bodes well for a very exciting US Open but also looks like the Big Two have the momentum which will see further domination in 2017.
In terms of players that can upset the status quo, I would look at:
- Nadal - strange adding Nadal to this list as he was a dominant player in the very recent 'Big Four' era.
- DelPo - knows how to win in New York and showed great form in Rio
- Wawrinka - always has the potential if he can find his A game but his form has been up and down this year
- Thiem - the upcoming star made the RG semi-final and looks like a big star for the future
- Kyrgios - unstable mentality but has the talent to cause upsets
Comments
Post a Comment