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US Open Final: What do the stats suggest?

As we enter today's final of the US Open, Novak Djokovic goes in as slight favourite. Djokovic is the defending Champion and leads the Head to Head with Murray 8-6.

Interestingly, they have only met twice in the Slams and that was at the 2011 Australian Open final, and again this year in Melbourne at the Semi Final stage. In that 2011 final Djokovic stormed to a 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 victory and Murray never really got into the match. Djokovic did go on to dominate 2011 with some of the most amazing tennis we have seen. This year's semi final at Australia was a much tighter affair finishing 6-3, 3-6, 6-7(4), 6-1, 7-5. This was an epic match and Murray showed he was able to match the Serb for the vast majority of the 4 hours 50 minutes battle. 

If we look at the stats below, it would suggest Djokovic is also showing to be in slightly better shape than Murray. When compared side by side in 2012 Slam averages, Djokovic edges Murray in pretty much all of the key categories.


Grand Slam Averages 2012(completed tournaments)


When we compare there averages from 2011 to 2012, you can see Djokovic's form overall has dipped a little bit. Murray's on the other hand has seen some improvement. They key observation I would make from Murray's stats is that his 1st serve percentage has increased slightly (2.03%). However, Djokovic's 1st serve percentage has dropped 3.3% in 2012. This could be on the reasons why he hasn't been so dominant. 
Averages for 2011 v 2012
In Murray's favour is the fact he won their last meeting at the London 2012 Olympics 7-5, 7-5. This time it is a best of five so expect a battle. 
The stats would suggest for Murray to win the 2012 US Open he needs to throw caution to the wind and remain calm as he has done so well since the Wimbledon final. Hitting winners on big points is something he did superbly at the Olympics, and will need to produce those moments again at Arthur Ashe.

Prediction: Murray in 4

Interesting fact: If Murray wins it will be the first time since 2003 that we will have four different winners of the four Slams. Big four share the Big four 2012, will that be the case?


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