The Big Four is no longer a thing, Murray v Raonic preview

Only a day away to the final day of Wimbledon 2016, arguably the most important day in the tennis calendar. The final will see Andy Murray, one of that famous big four, take on Milos Raonic. This will be only their second meeting on grass, with the last just 3 weeks ago at Queen's Club. That match was very close and the level of tennis was very high, a feel for things to come.

Big serve
There is no doubt the big server still enjoys the benefits that grass serves up (no pun intended). The ball slides on the bounce and therefore a player such as Raonic will expect many easy points on his serve. So far this Wimbledon he has managed 137 aces in 6 matches. At Queen's Club the serving stats were very good for both players in their final. Murray served 74% on his 1st serve in that final, compared to 65% against Berdych and 61% against Tsonga is his last two Wimbledon matches. He will want to get that % up to Queen's level to ensure he protects himself for getting broke. 

      Murray                                                  Raonic     

Murray return

There is no question that Murray is one of the best returners in the history of tennis, perhaps only Agassi and Djokovic could be deemed as better. His returning ability in vital moments at Queen's got him the victory, of which Murray admitted it was a bit of a guessing game after the match: "I guessed on a few serves and gained a bit of confidence on the returns but he's got a huge serve and sometimes it's just too good."

To highlight Murray's last words on Raonic's serve being sometimes too good, see the top ace makers in this year's Wimbledon to date:

Raonic is averaging almost 23 Aces per match which equates to almost a free set. Against Federer in the semi-final he managed exactly that number. Federer's challenge faded in the fifth and a lack of match practice this year appeared to show in the closing stages. On the other hand the 25 year old Raonic looks extremely fit and has an impressive and sizeable physique. 

Murray's guess is as good as anyone
The Murray guessing game in Sunday's final will likely decide who will win the Wimbledon trophy. The expectation is that Murray will get enough break points and breaks to ensure he wins the title. However, I wouldn't underestimate the improvements Raonic has made to his all round game. He hit 75 winners to Federer's 40 in the semi-final and showed he has a fine tennis brain in some of the longer rallies against the Swiss artist. 

Murray to get his second
Overall, the scene looks set for Murray to claim his second Wimbledon trophy and his third slam in total. If anyone deserves another slam it has to be Murray. This year his form has been as good as ever, and only for a certain Djokovic he would likely have many more than 2 slams to date. 
I also think Federer's fitness levels helped Raonic as that match wore on. The 5 setter against Cilic had taken it out of the 34 year old's legs. Murray will not tire, he seems to get stronger as matches wear on, a quality he shares with Djokovic. No doubt Murray will feel pressure at certain times and the one sided crowd will be a reminder of the magnitude of the opportunity. 
Raonic has nothing to lose and should enjoy his first slam final. His serve means he will have a shot at the title and his improving groundstrokes will cause Murray concern. 
In the end I see Murray winning this in 4 sets, with Raonic taking one of the sets in a breaker. 


More information on their previous head to heads can be found on the ATP site here.

Good luck to the Scott and the Canadian, should be another memorable final at the famous Centre Court.