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The Big Three Domination, is there an end in sight?

The Big Four has been the Big Three for longer than we think

Whilst in the past we discussed the 'Big Four', it really has been only the 'Big Three' (referred to as BT) all along when we look back in time. Murray was a great challenger to the BT but as time moves on, the BT with Andy just outside it makes more sense than discussing a 'Big Four'.
Nadal in action at Wimbledon 2019

Nadal's win at US Open

Some will suggest that Rafa got an 'easy' US Open win by not having to defeat his toughest rivals en-route to the title. Federer and Djokovic both went out rather timidly. Federer went out in 5 sets to Dimitrov in the Quarter final and was clearly struggling with back pain. Djokovic had to retire in his Round of 16 match against Wawrinka.
You could argue that this made it a more straightforward title for Nadal (I am sure Medvedev would argue this point).

 When we look at the data it provides some interesting insights. Below shows Grand Slam final results from the start of 2017 to yesterday's US Open final. 

Insight #1 Nadal has won the most
When we look back at the last 3 seasons/12 Slams of tennis our natural instinct is to think Rafa picked up the 3 Roland Garros available in this time, with Federer's revival at Australia and Wimbledon leaving him and Djokovic battling for the remaining 9. 

 The breakdown of Finals, Wins and Runners Up: 
  1. Nadal - 7 Finals, 5 Wins, 2 RU
  2. Djokovic - 4 Finals, 4 Wins
  3. Federer - 4 Finals, 3 Wins, 1 RU
This is pretty impressive stuff by Nadal and also shows he has been the most consistent Slam performer over the past 3 years despite this sense that it has been a battle between Djokovic and Federer. This may be down to the fact that Nadal has been pretty much been a cert for the Roland Garros crowns and therefore these wins are almost taken out of consideration - such is his dominance on clay.

Insight #2 The BT have only met in 3 of past 12 finals
The notion that Nadal may have had an easier run to his 4th US open title and 19th Slam without having to face Djokovic or Federer seems like a valid enough viewpoint at first glance. However, when we look at Finals, 75% of these have been won by a BT player without having to face another BT. Does that mean that those 9 wins were 'easy'?
If we take a look a bit deeper at BT Head to Heads in from the Australian Open 2017 to US Open 2019..

Federer v Nadal 
Played 3: Federer 2 - 1 Nadal 
2019 Wimbledon SF - Federer 
2019 Roland Garros SF - Nadal 
2017 Australian Open F - Federer 

Nadal v Djokovic
Played 2: Nadal 0 - 2 Djokovic  
2019 Australian Open F - Djokovic
2018 Wimbledon SF - Djokovic 

Djokovic v Federer 
Played 1: Djokovic 1 - Federer 0
2019 Wimbledon F - Djokovic

The H2H records in the past 12 slams show Djokovic comes out top when he plays Nadal or Federer. The last time Djokovic lost to Nadal at a slam was the Final of the 2014 Roland Garros. For Federer's last win against Djokovic at a slam you have to go even further back to the 2012 Wimbledon Semi-Final. 

Race for the Greatest Ever

Will we look back at this era, the greatest in tennis history, with a clear picture of who was the best of the best? Most Grand Slam wins will likely tip the balance in favour of whoever comes out on top of that list.
Previous articles have discussed the greatest ever discussion and covers the H2H element in the debate on top of most slam victories. 
However it pans out over the coming years, the expectation is the battle is a long way from being over. 

Current Slams Leaderboard 
Federer - 20
Nadal - 19
Djokovic - 16

Who will finish on top? 

At the beginning of 2017, many would have suggested Djokovic was the biggest threat to Federer's total haul which was 17 at the time. Nadal had injury issues and there was a sense he could win 1-2 more at Roland Garros he was looking like a player in decline, arguably more so than his senior Federer.
Now as the last slam of 2019 has concluded, you can't rule out any of these guys finishing top. 
In 2020, we expect Nadal to get an unprecedented 13th Roland Garros title which will see him get level with Federer. But he has also shown great consistency on hard courts in recent years and has to be thinking he can win at Australia too. 

My prediction for 2020 is as follows:
Djokovic to win 2 (from Australia, Wimbledon and US Open), Nadal to win 1 (Roland Garros) and mu boldest prediction is that a newbie will win the other... for how many years have we been saying that?

Based on that prediction the end of 2020 will be:
Federer - 20
Nadal - 20
Djokovic - 18 

Who knows what will happen? But what we do know is that greatest 3-way war in sports history is unfolding chapter after chapter and we should all be grateful to be part of this epic journey.

Roger, Rafa and Novak - THANK YOU!








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